Horizons Energy has released the Spring 2018 National Database (NDB) for EnCompass, incorporating a comprehensive set of assumptions for forecasting energy, ancillary service, and capacity prices throughout North America.
The NDB contains over 20 Balancing Authorities with interchange tariffs, ancillary service requirements, and capacity demand curves set based on market rules. Within those Balancing Authorities are 78 Areas (shown in the graphic) with zonal transmission limits and demand forecasts (including demand response) through 2050. Companies are defined to allow easy reporting at a state/province level, which reflects allocations of retail load from the area-level forecasts.
There are over 14,700 existing and planned generating resources in the NDB, with over 900 wind and 200 solar hourly profiles. Horizons Energy has developed proprietary fuel price forecasts through 2050 for 31 natural gas delivery points, 12 coal supply basins, as well as fuel oil and petroleum coke.
For new capacity, the NDB contains operating characteristics and regional construction costs for new gas-fired generation (simple and combined cycle), coal, nuclear, solar, wind (on-shore and off-shore), and batteries. Potential supply chain constraints for gas turbines and solar panels are represented using project constraints with higher construction costs based on the number of installations. State-level renewable portfolio standards are also captured as a capacity expansion constraint.
Additional scenarios are included in the NDB, which reflect different levels of demand growth and natural gas prices, a carbon tax beginning in 2020, lower construction costs for renewable energy, and baseload security with retention of coal and nuclear for reliability and/or onsite fuel storage
As an alternative to acquiring the National Database, Horizons Energy provides consulting services to deliver standard or customized forecasts of market prices in a format that can be used directly in EnCompass for budgeting and resource planning. More information on the NDB and related services can be found at www.horizons-energy.com.