POWER MARKET FORECASTING
Comprehensive database for North American power markets
Analyze energy markets and produce accurate price forecasts under multiple scenarios
PROVEN AND ACCEPTED METHODOLOGY
EnCompass, with Horizons Energy National Database, can produce accurate price forecasts under expected conditions and future scenarios.
POWER MARKET FORECASTING
EnCompass uses a methodology that is proven and accepted for forecasting wholesale power market prices. EnCompass considers the fundamentals driving today’s market, and how the markets will change based on future regulations, investment decisions, and the availability of natural resources.
EnCompass, together with the Horizons Energy National Database, can produce accurate price forecasts under expected conditions and multiple future scenarios. Price forecasts can include detailed energy and ancillary service components for mid-term (1 month to 3 years) trading and budgeting purposes, as well as long-term (out to 30 years) energy and capacity forecasts to support capital investment decisions.
ENERGY AND ANCILLARY PRICES
EnCompass can forecast hourly day-ahead energy prices and sub-hourly real-time prices. Regional ancillary service requirements are co-optimized along with area load to ensure enough resources are available for uncertain events. Contingency reserves may be set with both a spinning (responsive) and a non-spinning (supplemental) component.
Regulation reserves are defined with up and down requirements, and you may restrict resources that provide regulation to be dispatched within a given capacity range. Reserve regions may overlap so that subareas must maintain a minimum level of reserves in addition to market-wide requirements, or they may span multiple balancing authorities to provide reserve sharing.
EnCompass can dynamically adjust energy and ancillary bids to account for start-up and no-load costs and minimize the amount of uplift to make generators whole.
Forecast annual capacity prices using the same type of methodology in PJM and New York, including downward-sloping demand curves. New capital projects and resources eligible for retirement will submit capacity bids to recover fixed operating and capital carrying costs, less any profits from the energy and ancillary service markets. If no capacity market is modeled, or if there are still unrecovered costs, EnCompass dynamically adjusts energy and ancillary service bids, similar to the scarcity pricing mechanism used in ERCOT.
Each balancing authority modeled may have a reserve margin requirement set that is satisfied based on the firm capacity of existing resources and new capital projects. In addition to the normal zonal transmission constraints, each zone may have net capacity import and/or export limits set. This could potentially force capacity to be shifted into transmission-constrained regions like the New York ISO Local Capacity Requirement (LCR) and the PJM Locational Deliverability Area (LDA).
INCLUSIVE ROBUST DATASET
HORIZONS NATIONAL DATABASE
One of the biggest challenges in forecasting long-term market prices is developing a robust dataset for the wholesale power market. Horizons Energy, an Anchor Power Solutions affiliate, developed and provides a comprehensive EnCompass database for North American power markets.
Horizons Energy has benchmarked the 78 distinct zonal areas included in NDB, representing hourly demand and over 20,500 generation resources. The NDB contains individual market rules and zonal transmission costs/limits. Underlying technology-specific detail includes multiple block offer curves, start costs, minimum up/down time for thermal resources, hourly representation of wind and solar resources, pondage-based hydro, and interruptible demand. The database also includes Horizons Energy’s 30-year forward views of fuel markets, environmental compliance, and new resource economics.
BUILT FOR EVOLVING MARKETS
Whether modeling large regions or the entire country, EnCompass can evaluate the impacts of policy changes related to emissions, renewables, or any other aspect of energy policy.
PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS
When modeling large regions or the entire country, EnCompass can be used to evaluate the impacts of policy changes related to emissions, renewables, transmission investment, fuel infrastructure, or any other aspect of energy policy. Rather than focusing strictly on market prices, the software’s detailed analysis includes outputs such as total emissions, fuel consumption, generation by technology, reliability, and total production costs. Annual limits can be enforced on a national basis for carbon limits and renewable energy requirements, as well as dynamic supply curves for fuels like coal and natural gas.
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